A global risk assessment examines 17 interconnected threats to human health over the next 75 years, through 2100. It identifies two potential existential risks, while also highlighting threats that are already causing harm and could be addressed through prevention.
A 35-member Lancet Commission prepared the assessment, and its findings are also being presented at the annual World Health Summit in Germany. Using current trends, the researchers modelled how many healthy years of life could be lost through illness or death linked to each threat. The estimates do not project the number of deaths.
Table of Contents
AI and nuclear war
Artificial intelligence
The report identifies artificial intelligence as one potential extinction risk. One of its most serious possible uses is the development of biological weapons.
Nuclear war
Nuclear war is the other main existential threat in the assessment. After the immediate destruction, it could lead to global famine. The report treats both this scenario and the AI-related one as low-probability risks with potentially extreme consequences.
Estimates involving AI, future pandemics and nuclear conflict are uncertain because little historical data is available. The report’s authors therefore also relied on expert opinions and forecasting assessments.
Everyday threats
Experts classify risks that could potentially cause more than one billion cumulative deaths per day as “severe catastrophic threats.” These do not directly threaten human extinction, but they are already causing problems. The source lists 15 of the 17 threats in this section, so the items below are a partial segment.
Air pollution
Air pollution.
Antimicrobial resistance
Antimicrobial resistance.
Childhood malnutrition
Childhood malnutrition.
Climate change
Climate change.
Conventional conflicts
Conventional conflicts.
Declining foreign aid
The assessment also identifies declining foreign aid as a threat.
High alcohol consumption
High alcohol consumption is included in the list.
High blood pressure
High blood pressure appears on the list.
Income inequality
Income inequality is among the threats named.
Low levels of education
The assessment includes low levels of education.
Naturally occurring pandemics
The list includes naturally occurring pandemics.
Obesity
Obesity is also among the listed threats.
Poor mental health
Poor mental health is one of the identified threats.
Smoking
Smoking is among the listed risks.
Unhealthy aging
Unhealthy aging is also included.
Ibrahim Abubakar, a commission member and professor of infectious disease epidemiology at UCL, said the list is intended to focus policymakers’ attention, not to frighten people. He said change can only be achieved at that level.
The assessment puts uncertain, low-probability risks such as AI-related catastrophe and nuclear war alongside threats already causing harm, including air pollution, smoking and childhood malnutrition. Its estimates track lost healthy years of life, not deaths.
