Germany’s most AI-exposed occupations employed about 14% fewer full-time workers aged 20–24 in early 2026 than in mid-2022, according to the ifo Institute. Their numbers fell from 279,000 to 239,000. Yet employment across those occupations as a whole grew, drawing a sharp distinction between weaker prospects for young workers and widespread job losses.
The Munich-based economic research institute says wider corporate adoption of AI is making it harder for people entering the workforce to find jobs, but there’s no sign yet that the technology is causing mass job losses. Its study estimates that the most exposed occupations employ roughly 34,000 fewer young workers than would otherwise have been expected. That estimated shortfall is a separate measure from the observed decline in headcount.
To track how generative AI is changing the labor market, ifo developed a new AI forecasting indicator. Researchers compared employment and hiring data across 140 occupational groups with the extent to which AI could replace tasks within those jobs.
The broader employment figures don’t point to a simple pattern of AI exposure leading to fewer jobs. Since the third quarter of 2022, employment in Germany’s most AI-exposed occupations increased by 1.8%, while the least-exposed occupations recorded a 6.4% decline. The study stresses that AI can increase workers’ productivity as well as replace some of their tasks.
Clemens Fuest, the institute’s president, says there’s no general pattern of AI-driven job cuts so far. Instead, people entering the labor market are the first to feel the changes. An analysis covering all 27 European Union member states likewise found no broad employment decline, but did identify signs that companies are hiring fewer entry-level workers for jobs whose tasks AI can automate.
The occupations identified as highly exposed to AI include:
- Data entry and text processing roles
- Software developers
- Accountants
- Database and network specialists
- Authors and journalists
Exposure here concerns the tasks AI could replace, rather than proof that entire jobs are disappearing. Researchers say most blue-collar and other physical jobs are currently less replaceable by AI. Among the least-affected occupations are kitchen assistants, construction workers, carpenters, painters, cleaners and agricultural workers.
The researchers caution that the findings don’t clearly establish AI as the sole cause of the observed trends. Demographic changes, longer periods of study and the spread of remote work may also affect young people’s employment prospects. Those factors leave a specific question unresolved: how much of the shrinking entry-level workforce reflects AI changing companies’ hiring decisions, rather than other changes in who is looking for work and when?
